Seven Wall Street firms cut their Coinbase (COIN) price targets on Friday after a weak start to the fourth quarter. Trading fees reached only about $165 million through October 25, and the stock fell 6% to $150.75 before the open.

Wall Street cut its Coinbase forecasts because people are trading less crypto, and Coinbase makes most of its money from fees on each trade.

Coinbase Stock (COIN) Pre-Market Performance. Source: Yahoo Finance

Why Does $165 Million in 25 Days Worry the Banks?

A price target is an analyst’s estimate of where a stock will trade in 12 months. Trading fees made up nearly half of Coinbase’s $1.22 billion in third-quarter revenue, so a slower pace cuts the earnings estimates behind those targets.

“Transaction revenue through October 25th is approximately $165 million,” Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said on Thursday’s call.

Barclays went lowest, cutting to $120 from $149, or 25% below Thursday’s $160.59 close.

Mizuho, which cut to $145 from $155, projects about $607 million in Q4 transaction revenue. That is slightly above Q3’s $590 million but 11% below the $684 million consensus before the results.

Wells Fargo moved to $174 from $200, Compass Point to $165 from $187, Needham to $197 from $205, and Canaccord to $275 from $300. Jefferies, at $174 from $183, cited the expense outlook, while Mizuho flagged retail traders drifting to Robinhood.

Banks Cut Coinbase Stock Targets

Q3’s figure was already down 44% year on year, per Coinbase’s quarterly filing with US regulators.

COIN shareholders, already down 51% over the past year, now face lower targets one day after a $718.7 million headline profit built mostly on paper gains.

Why October’s Slow Start May Not Decide Coinbase’s Quarter

Early-quarter figures have undershot before. In July, Coinbase reported about $130 million in transaction revenue through July 26, according to its Q2 deck. The third quarter closed at $590 million.

Haas also said trading conditions improved in September. Coinbase lowered its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to $4.15 billion to $4.3 billion, a move Mizuho called a positive.

Profit, however, still leans on token prices. Operating income fell to $61.7 million from $480.5 million, while a $715 million unrealized crypto gain drove most of net income.

Prediction markets, where users trade contracts on event outcomes, passed $200 million in annualized revenue. Average holdings of USDC, a dollar-pegged digital token, hit a record $22 billion on Coinbase.

What Comes Next for COIN Shareholders?

The cuts landed as crypto stocks slid after the $6.3 billion Binance hack, a figure Binance itself reported. The exchange said withdrawals should resume within 48 hours.

Pre-set share sales by CEO Brian Armstrong, co-founder Fred Ehrsam, and President Emilie Choi can begin November 16, covering up to 13.6 million shares.

TipRanks still showed a 30-analyst average target of $207.61, with 19 Buy ratings against two Sells. The lowest target in that range sits at $100.

Coinbase Global (COIN) Stock Forecast & Price Target. Source: TipRanks

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