Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Monday. Analyst Benjamin Cowen says two of nine steps on his bearish 2026 roadmap are now done.

The checked boxes cover a weekly close below $83,000 and a fakeout on October 25, meaning a breakout that reversed. The next two steps, however, depend on scheduled events this week, not price action.

Which Macro Dominoes Come Next?

His path assumes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not raise rates at its October 28 decision. The Fed publishes it at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, according to its calendar.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) then publishes the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on October 29. Cowen’s path calls for a hot reading from that inflation gauge.

Oil’s latest surge is already close, with Brent crude settling at $116.72 on Friday. Cowen’s roadmap calls for roughly $120 over the Iran war.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.10% on October 15, according to the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database. Cowen’s path calls for a return to 5.3%.

Falling stocks, a fourth-quarter slide in Bitcoin, and lower long-dated yields before year-end complete the sequence. Cowen cites a recurring drop in the final quarter of US midterm election years.

What Would Void Cowen’s Path?

Cowen says the roadmap becomes void if Bitcoin regains $83,000 and holds it. He ticked off the first two steps in an updated post on X on Monday.

“I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k)”

He had flagged the October 25 close in an earlier $83,000 warning. Bitcoin also slipped under $80,000 on Saturday, when about $191 million in long positions were liquidated.

Bitcoin is already below $80,000 with the Fed and PCE steps still ahead. Those two events could show whether Bitcoin’s price action follows rates and oil rather than crypto-specific demand.

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