Bitcoin price enters November defending $76,000, the average cost basis of short-term holders. The level was held after the Binance hack pushed BTC to a six-week low of $76,275.

The shock from Binance triggered $1.58 billion in liquidations, and BTC closed October with a 7% loss.

On-Chain Data Puts Bitcoin at a Make-or-Break Level

Glassnode data shows heavy exchange inflows during the late-October slide. Net deposits reached about 11,500 BTC and 8,000 BTC on separate days, signaling sell-side pressure.

Net outflows of roughly 40,000 BTC followed within days, among the largest of 2026. However, these flows do not suggest accumulation.

Bitcoin exchange net transfer volume. Source: Glassnode

The stolen 18,270 BTC left a Binance hot wallet during the hack, which registers as an exchange outflow. Users then pulled about $2 billion within three hours after withdrawals reopened on November 1.

Meanwhile, the attacker’s coins remain untouched across 19 addresses. Any move toward exchanges could add fresh supply pressure.

The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio offers a clearer signal. It compares the market price with the average cost basis of recent buyers.

The metric sits near 1.02, meaning short-term holders are about 2% in profit. That places their cost basis close to $76,000, almost exactly at last week’s low.

Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV / Source: Glassnode

Historically, drops below 1.0 in 2026 preceded capitulation. Breakdowns in late January and late May led to the February and June lows. In contrast, the August reclaim sparked a rally toward $87,000.

The ratio has also printed lower highs since late September, falling from 1.20 to 1.03. Holding $76,000 keeps recent buyers profitable, while losing it could push them to sell at a loss.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Points to Two November Scenarios

On the weekly chart, BTC is testing the bull market support band. The band combines the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $76,874 and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) at $73,779.

However, the Gaussian channel has stayed red since March, signaling a broader downtrend. BTC was recently rejected at the channel’s declining midline, now near $81,850.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 52, a neutral level that leans slightly lower.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart adds a bearish warning. The Supertrend indicator flipped red after the hack, for the first time since May.

That May signal preceded a 25% drop to $57,800. A similar decline from the latest flip near $80,000 would target roughly $60,000.

For now, BTC is holding the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $77,876. Daily RSI has slipped to 38, extending a downtrend in momentum.

Resistance sits at $81,000 to $82,000, with a stronger supply zone between $85,000 and $87,000. That upper zone rejected BTC twice in late September and early October.

BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

The November outlook therefore hinges on $76,000. Holding it and reclaiming $82,000 could open a path to $87,000.

Losing it would expose the $73,000 to $74,000 zone. The daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 20-week SMA, and the weekly 0.236 Fibonacci level all cluster there.

A breakdown below that zone could extend the slide to the Gaussian channel’s lower band near $71,000. A May-style repeat would put $60,000 in play.

Catalysts could accelerate either move. Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in outflows the day after the hack. Meanwhile, the US midterms on November 3 add another layer of uncertainty.

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