China could set off the next Bitcoin supercycle if Beijing lets its citizens trade under tight controls. This is according to former UBS banker Joseph Chee, who gave no timeline.

Chee previously ran Asia investment banking at UBS. He now leads Solana Company, a Nasdaq-listed firm that holds the Solana (SOL) token as its treasury asset.

Hong Kong Is China’s Crypto Test Run

Crypto trading is still illegal on the mainland. In February, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and seven other agencies restated that ban and kept stablecoins behind prior government approval.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia, the former UBS executive said Beijing follows the technology closely through think tanks and academics.

According to Chee, officials are using Hong Kong to test how crypto can be rolled out and controlled.

“When the Chinese government find a way to manage this and allow access to trading crypto… I think the crypto is going to go through another super cycle,” Chee stated.

He added that, for now, Beijing may not allow trading or onshore issuance of stablecoins, tokens pegged to a currency such as the US dollar.

What’s Stopping China From Reopening Crypto Trading?

Chee named two hurdles:

First, the officials who would supervise the market need to understand it.

The bigger focus, he said, is capital flight, or money leaving the country. China still runs capital controls that restrict those outflows.

Chee’s comments come as China faces internal pressure, compelling it to shut lenders at a record pace. Notably, the country reported 670 rural bank closures in the latest yearly count as bad loans rise.

BeInCrypto reported in May that a mainland offshore broker crackdown could push traders toward dollar-pegged tokens to move funds.

Chee said price swings, the PBOC’s older worry, are here to stay.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s government and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) plan to introduce a bill this year licensing crypto dealers, custodians, advisers and fund managers.

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, repeated that target in a June reply to lawmakers. The city licensed two bank-backed stablecoin issuers in April, and its first Hong Kong stablecoin went live in August.

Beijing has announced no plan to extend any of it to the mainland.

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