Elon Musk wants to make a Tesla fly on Thursday. But Wall Street has a history of punishing his biggest product reveals.

Tesla’s long-awaited Roadster will reportedly hover using SpaceX rocket technology at an October 15 event in Texas. The demonstration will use compressed-gas thrusters to lift the car without anyone inside.

Musk reportedly warned staff that the stunt “will be hard to pull off and could go wrong.”

Tesla shares closed Tuesday at $375.23, roughly 25% below their 52-week high. Investors now face a familiar question: will the spectacle lift the stock or trigger another sell-off?

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Performance Year-To-Date. Source: Yahoo Finance

Why Tesla’s Biggest Reveals Keep Hurting Its Stock

History offers three warnings. Tesla shares fell 6% after the 2019 Cybertruck reveal, when its supposedly unbreakable windows shattered.

The October 2024 Cybercab unveiling triggered an 8.3% decline. More recently, shares lost 5.92% on September 4, following another Cybercab event that disappointed investors.

The common problem was uncertainty over when Tesla could turn its technology into revenue.

What Could Send TSLA Higher or Lower on Friday?

A successful hovering demonstration could improve sentiment. However, investors will likely want confirmed pricing, production plans and delivery dates.

The financial impact looks limited. Ledger co-founder Eric Larchevêque said the $250,000 Founders Series is capped at 1,000 cars. Even selling every vehicle would generate just $250 million in revenue against Tesla’s roughly $1.48 trillion valuation.

Production remains targeted for 2027 or 2028.

Meanwhile, SpaceX offers another warning. Its stock fell despite Starship’s successful orbital flight, partly amid pressure from post-IPO share unlocks.

Tesla faces a different test on Friday, October 16, the first trading session after the reveal.

A working prototype and credible production timetable could support TSLA. Another spectacular demonstration without commercial details risks disappointment.

Tesla’s October 21 earnings report will then return investors’ attention to its larger business.

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