Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. explains why robotaxis and Optimus could make 2027 Tesla’s golden year. His case rests on businesses that have yet to prove themselves.

Tesla (TSLA) beat third-quarter delivery estimates with 486,532 vehicles, yet the Model 3 and Model Y made up 98% of them. Ives says the shares now trade on what comes next.

What Would Make 2027 Tesla’s Golden Year?

Ives told CNBC that demand is stabilizing, helped by a rebound in Europe after several years of declines. However, he does not expect the Cybertruck, which sits at the high end of the market, to move demand much.

His timeline starts with robotaxis, driverless ride-hailing cars, reaching more cities in early to mid 2027. Regulation has slowed that rollout so far, he said.

Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, would follow in the second half of 2027. Ives links both to Tesla’s shift from an electric vehicle maker to an artificial intelligence (AI) company.

“And that’s why 2027 I think could be a golden year for Tesla.”

Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives & Co., via CNBC

Ives also puts Tesla and SpaceX merger odds above 80% by the end of 2027.

Does Tesla’s Price Already Assume the AI Payoff?

In contrast, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan kept an Underweight rating on Tesla in July, a sell equivalent. His $130 target sat about 67% below the roughly $396 share price at the time.

Tesla is down nearly 20% YTD, but has mounted a comeback since late July. Image Source: Trading View

Langan expects price cuts and rising input costs, including copper and lithium, to blunt the profit from higher volume.

Meanwhile, Ives argues the AI trade is only in its third inning, with chip demand running 13-to-1 against supply.

The question reaches beyond Tesla, to how long investors will fund AI bets before robots and driverless cars produce revenue. Tesla’s earnings report on Oct. 21 will give the next read on car margins.

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