The Ethereum price has gained roughly 6% this week and is testing key resistance near $2,439. However, US spot ETF investors have not posted a single day of net inflows since September 29, according to Glassnode.

Some traders argue that institutional adoption has outpaced the price. On-chain data, however, points to fading demand behind the latest move.

Ethereum On-Chain Data Flashes Warning Signs

The 14-day moving average of active Ethereum (ETH) addresses fell to roughly 365,000 on October 17, Glassnode data shows. That was its lowest reading since December 2025.

The metric has since recovered only slightly, to near 375,000. It is now drifting back toward the October low.

The decline looks steeper against the February 9 peak of nearly 800,000. However, that spike came during a sharp sell-off and likely reflected capitulation activity.

A fairer baseline is the spring range of 500,000 to 550,000. Against that range, activity is still down roughly 25% to 30%.

Ethereum price and active addresses 14-day moving average / Source: Glassnode

More importantly, activity diverged from price. Active addresses peaked near 470,000 in mid-August and declined throughout the August and September rally.

This suggests the climb toward $2,800 lacked broad network participation. The metric tracks only mainnet addresses, so activity on Layer-2 (L2) networks is not captured.

Meanwhile, long-dormant whales moved more than $140 million in ETH during October. A recovery above the mid-August high near 470,000 would ease the bearish signal.

ETF Investors Have Not Bought a Single Day in Five Weeks

ETF demand tells a similar story. US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded no net inflow day since September 29, per Glassnode.

By October 30, the run had reached 23 straight outflow sessions. According to Glassnode data, that is the longest streak since the funds launched.

October alone saw $1.61 billion leave the funds, their largest monthly outflow since launch in July 2024. On November 3, the funds lost another $85.35 million, according to SoSoValue.

Ethereum price and US spot ETF net flows in ETH / Source: Glassnode

Data providers differ slightly, however. SoSoValue recorded a small $15 million net inflow on October 21, a single break in an otherwise steady exodus.

The flows also help explain the earlier rally. ETH’s August jump coincided with the largest inflow wave on the chart, with several sessions above 70,000 ETH.

That demand has now reversed. With network activity also fading, no clear buyer has stepped in to replace it. A return to consistent daily inflows would be the clearest sign of recovering institutional demand.

Ethereum Price Analysis Shows a Fight for $2,439

On the weekly chart, ETH remains in a broader downtrend. Each major peak since the $4,958 all-time high has come in lower.

The price topped near $3,400 at the turn of the year and near $2,800 in late September. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $2,920 flipped from support in 2024 to resistance in 2026.

Lows have also fallen, from roughly $1,750 in February to about $1,520 in mid-2026. However, the local structure has improved since then.

ETH weekly chart / Source: Tradingview

The September high exceeded the spring high near $2,470, forming a higher high. A higher low at current levels would complete a local uptrend and could signal a reversal.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 50, which is neutral. It remains below its signal line, so momentum has not confirmed a turn yet.

Volume has contracted since February, pointing to consolidation rather than accumulation. The 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1,754 remains the strongest support, tested at least four times since 2023.

Daily Chart Shows a Bounce Inside a Rising Wedge

The daily chart shows ETH rebounding from a rising trend line near $2,200. That line has guided price higher since the late-June low.

The latest daily candle pushed above the Bollinger Bands midline and is testing the 0.618 retracement at $2,439. Daily RSI has also crossed above its signal line.

However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. A squeeze often precedes a sharp move, but it does not reveal the direction.

ETH daily chart / Source: Tradingview

Volume has trended lower since August, so the breakout attempt lacks confirmation. In addition, the two trend lines converge, forming a rising wedge that often resolves to the downside.

The upper wedge line meets the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $2,920 to $2,950. That creates a strong resistance cluster above the price.

ETH Price Prediction Hinges on the $2,200 Line

A daily close above $2,439 would open the way to the upper Bollinger Band near $2,500. Beyond it, the target sits at $2,920 to $2,950, roughly 21% above $2,410.

A daily close below $2,200 would confirm a wedge breakdown. That scenario targets $1,754, about 27% below $2,410.

The downside target is slightly larger. Combined with weak on-chain data, the risk appears tilted toward the bear case for now.

Still, bulls have some support. Large exchange outflows in October mirrored a pattern seen before June’s rebound. Ethereum’s next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, could also offer a fundamental catalyst.

Longer-term bulls also point to macro signals. Analyst Ted Pillows links ETH’s past parabolic runs to US manufacturing expansion.

However, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index read 55.5 in October. That marked a 10th straight month of expansion, yet ETH fell over the same period.

For now, the bounce needs returning ETF demand or recovering network activity to hold. Without either, $2,200 remains the level that decides the next move.

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