Analyst Frank Cappelleri says Bitcoin (BTC) could still be early in a bigger bullish move. He points to a roughly 20% August gain and two other signals.

Bitcoin has already rallied from its summer lows, which raises the question of how much upside is left. Cappelleri, founder and president of chart research firm CappThesis, says recent price behavior differs from earlier failed bounces.

Why Did Earlier Breakouts Fail to Spark a Bullish Move?

His first reason concerns breakouts, which occur when price pushes above a level it struggled to clear. Writing for CNBC Pro on Oct. 1, Cappelleri says Bitcoin’s are working again.

A pattern traders read as a sign of higher prices finally delivered this summer, setting up Bitcoin’s August breakout.

Bitcoin is up 36% in the last three months. Image Source: CoinGecko

Three other such patterns fizzled between late 2025 and early 2026. He calls that typical of a downtrend, since healthy uptrends keep climbing after breakouts.

Is Bitcoin Repeating the Start of Its 2023 Rally?

His second reason is historical. Bitcoin’s weekly chart this year looks much like the stretch from 2022 into 2023, he says.

In 2023, weekly price averages that had capped rallies turned upward and began cushioning dips. Cappelleri sees that flip as a marker of a market shifting from falling to rising.

Bitcoin’s advance then ran into late 2025, and he argues today’s price action looks similar.

His third reason is the long view. Bitcoin’s rebound began near a rising trend line stretching back to 2017. Each of three earlier dips toward it led to a rally within months.

The roughly 20% August gain matters too, he says, because such moves were rare in weak stretches. Exchange trading volume also rebounded that month, according to CryptoQuant’s volume revival data.

Macro pressure remains. CME FedWatch, which tracks market-implied rate odds, put October Federal Reserve hike odds at 68.1% on Sept. 28. BeInCrypto analysis tied rate fears to the recent crypto market slide.

Whether breakouts hold against rising rate expectations will show if this is a trend change or another bounce that fades.

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