Goldman Sachs has cut its 12-month KOSPI target by 25%, to 9,000 from 12,000. The new figure returns the bank to where it stood before its June 3 upgrade.

The bank estimates chip valuations now imply a 65% fall in 2027 sector earnings. It calls that view excessively pessimistic. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix report this week, offering the first test of that view.

Record Chip Profits Have Not Stopped the Selling

The KOSPI closed at 5,550.30 on October 23, according to Google Finance. Its 2026 gain has shrunk to 28.79%, from about 116% at the June peak. Even after the cut, the 9,000 target implies about 62% upside from the KOSPI’s October 23 close.

KOSPI 2026 Performance. Source: Google Finance

Memory chipmakers make up about half the index. Their shares have kept falling through record profit guidance. Samsung guided a third-quarter operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won on October 8, about 20% above the second quarter.

Samsung shares fell 2.42% that day, to 262,000 won. They have since dropped about 18%, closing at 215,500 won on October 23.

SK Hynix closed at 1.277 million won, about 57% below its 52-week high. Investors appear to be pricing in a future downturn in memory chip profits.

Two other signals add pressure on the index heading into earnings.

A Chart Line and Underwater Retail Add Pressure

Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer said the KOSPI is barely holding a potential head-and-shoulders neckline. A break below that line is often read as a sign of further losses. His chart places it near 5,451, about 2% below the October 23 close.

Retail investors are already underwater. Their net purchases this year carry an estimated average entry level near 6,550, Global Markets Investor said. That leaves the typical retail position about 15% down, before counting leveraged bets.

Those pressures put more weight on what the chipmakers say next.

Earnings Week Puts the 65% Assumption to the Test

SK Hynix holds its third-quarter call on October 28. Samsung reports full results with division figures on October 29.

Management comments on 2027 pricing and orders may matter more than third-quarter profits. That outlook will help show whether the market’s 65% assumption is too harsh, as Goldman argues.

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