The risk of AI taking jobs falls hardest on young people, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva warned Monday in Bangkok. The routine roles where careers usually begin are vanishing first, she said.

Georgieva expects AI to eventually touch about 40% of jobs worldwide. Yet the IMF’s own US research shows overall job gains, mostly in lower-paid work.

Why Are Young Workers First in Line?

Speaking at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, Georgieva compared AI to a tsunami that moves slowly but still hits.

The IMF expects around 60% of jobs in advanced economies to feel the impact, against 23% in low-income countries. Poorer nations only look safer because AI has not reached them yet, she said.

Meanwhile, IMF research in the US found routine jobs shrinking. Most new positions are lower-paid roles in data centers and services, echoing a warning from Mark Cuban about who benefits.

“The people to worry about first and foremost young people that are coming into the labor market. Normally they would get into this routine repetitive jobs and then grow up the ranks but if they’re gone I don’t think any young person wants to be a barista in a coffee shop…”

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, said.

Is the First Rung of the Career Ladder Breaking?

Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, on the same panel, pointed to entry-level hiring.

“The first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand. The evidence is already very clear. It’s clearest in the most AI exposed sectors, by the way, which are the tech sectors.”

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, President of Singapore, said.

Missing that first job costs more than a year of skills, Tharman argued. It also erodes trust in the future.

Payroll data backs his concern. In the most AI-exposed jobs, employment of 22- to 25-year-olds fell about 12% between November 2022 and April 2026.

In contrast, the same age group grew about 7% in the least-exposed roles. Workers aged 31 and older showed almost no gap, according to Stanford and ADP data.

In AI-exposed jobs, only the youngest workers are losing ground / Source: Stanford Digital Economy Lab & ADP Research

The researchers trace the drop to fewer hires rather than layoffs.

A September US Census Bureau paper found starting pay for the most AI-exposed majors fell 13%. About half of that loss came from graduates moving into restaurants, retail, and other lower-wage sectors.

Is a College Degree Still a Safe Bet?

Tharman also said US demand for graduates has dropped for the first time in a century.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York data points the same way. Recent graduates faced unemployment near 5.7% in June 2026, against roughly 4.1% for all workers.

Historically, recent graduates had lower jobless rates than the overall workforce. Since 2018, that pattern has flipped. The gap hit 1.8 percentage points in April 2025, the widest since at least 1990.

Unemployment rate for recent college graduates vs. all workers, 1990 to 2026, showing young graduates hit as AI taking jobs concerns grow / Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Early Warning or False Alarm?

Stanford’s researchers call their findings descriptive, not proof that AI caused the decline. Others, including Andreessen Horowitz partner David George, say the AI jobs panic narrative lacks evidence.

Still, Tharman urged governments to make COVID-era hiring support permanent, with incentives for companies to take on fresh graduates.

Georgieva admitted nobody can picture the world of work five years from now. For those entering it today, the hiring data already shows the first cracks.

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