Bitcoin could outperform both US stocks and gold over the next decade, according to a striking new projection from JPMorgan Asset Management.

The Wall Street giant estimates that Bitcoin (BTC) could deliver annual returns of 10% in its base-case scenario, comfortably ahead of the 7.5% expected from US large-cap stocks and 5.5% from gold.

At that rate, a $10,000 Bitcoin investment would grow to nearly $26,000 over ten years, assuming the projected returns compound annually.

Yet JPMorgan considers a decade-long Bitcoin forecast premature and continues to exclude BTC from its core risk models.

JPMorgan’s 10-Year Bitcoin Price Forecast

The figures appear in the 2027 edition of JPMorgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA). The annual report has never before put a range on Bitcoin returns.

The base case starts from a spot price of $83,000 as of September 30. The bull case reaches 16.6% a year. Its range also includes a bear case of -11.2% a year.

BeInCrypto calculations show what those rates imply for Bitcoin’s price by 2036, compounded from $83,000.

The base case of 10% a year points to about $215,000.
The bull case of 16.6% a year points to about $386,000.
The bear case of -11.2% a year points to about $25,000.

“BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as digital gold. Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle. A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology,” the analysts wrote.

JPMorgan cites those correlations and very high volatility for keeping BTC in a separate illustrative table. That table puts BTC’s historical volatility at 55%, roughly 3 times the figures for stocks and gold.

JPMorgan’s Standalone Bitcoin Table Against Stocks and Gold. Source: JPMorgan Asset Management

Even so, the report cites JPMorgan Private Bank’s 2026 Global Family Office Report, where around a tenth of surveyed clients said they held crypto assets.

Separately, 17% of respondents planned to prioritize crypto and other digital assets.

Part of the Bitcoin Math Runs Through Gold Portfolios

The largest framework, weighted at 65%, compares Bitcoin’s supply growth with the US dollar and global money supply. It projects 10.7% a year in its base case.

A second framework, weighted at 30%, treats Bitcoin as a complement to gold. Its base case has investors rotating some gold exposure into BTC, also for 10.7%.

Its bull case assumes Bitcoin enters a central bank’s reserves. That scenario projects 17.3% a year, the highest figure in the table. Network adoption, the third framework at 5% weight, projects -3.2% in its base case.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept gold at 5.5% and still calls the metal a key hedge. It also notes that reserve managers are building positions in gold and other hard assets. China’s central bank, for instance, added more gold in September than in any month since 2023.

JPMorgan measures only a 0.10 correlation between the 2 assets. For gold holders, the rotation case implies some money moving to BTC over the decade.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reacted to the inclusion on X.

His claim holds within the public market table. However, small-cap private equity at 10.6% and US value-added real estate at 10.2% rank above BTC.

JPMorgan says Bitcoin’s portfolio role could grow if volatility falls and correlations stabilize. Until then, it advises stress-testing any BTC allocation against both bull and bear cases.

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