Morgan Stanley says SpaceX stock could nearly double to $300 a share. Yet at least 40 of the firm’s clients do not own the stock.

SpaceX went public in June in the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, at $135 a share. Four months later, shares trade about 23% above that price.

SpaceX Stock (SPCX) Performance Since IPO. Source: Yahoo Finance

Why Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX Stock Price Could Nearly Double

Analyst Adam Jonas kept his buy rating and $300 target in a note reported Monday. That sits 89% above Friday’s $158.96 close.

His case rests on one split. He values the rockets and Starlink, the satellite internet service, at $127 a share.

That leaves about $32 for the artificial intelligence (AI) business. It includes the Grok chatbot and computing power SpaceX rents out. Across roughly 13.2 billion shares, that values AI near $420 billion.

Jonas thinks that is too low. SpaceX’s recent short-term computing deals paid $30 to $50 per watt of capacity, he said. Analyst models assume $17.60.

In other words, Jonas argues buyers today are mostly paying for rockets and Starlink, and very little for AI.

Why Investors Are Staying Away From SpaceX Stock

Jonas tested demand himself. Last week, he asked a room of 40 clients who owned the stock.

“not a single hand went up,” the Morgan Stanley analyst revealed.

He named the worries investors raise most:

Whether Grok can keep pace with rival AI models.

Whether Starlink can secure the airwaves, known as spectrum, for its mobile service.

Jonas says both are already priced in.

The stock has also slid since its debut. Shares sit about 30% below their post-IPO high of $225.64.

On September 24, about 328 million shares became free to sell as the post-IPO lockup ended. President Gwynne Shotwell also sold $52.5 million in shares.

Meanwhile, the AI arm is still losing money. It lost $1.26 billion last quarter while consuming 86% of SpaceX’s capital spending.

Not every analyst is convinced. Some forecast as low as $142, TipRanks shows. The 33-analyst average is $235.10.

SpaceX stock analyst price targets. Source: TipRanks

What Could Bring Investors Back to SpaceX Stock?

Jonas points to Starship, Elon Musk’s dream reusable spacecraft that completed a recent successful orbit. Flight 15 is due in late October or early November.

If SpaceX catches the returning ship, Jonas said, it could be the stock’s biggest boost since the IPO.

Third-quarter earnings land in late October. Jonas also lists new Grok versions and more computing deals as possible boosts.

He also set out what would sink the stock. A drop to $100 within a year would take an AI slowdown, a severe Starship setback, or dilution.

For now, a $300 target is meeting a room with no hands raised.

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