Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said Saturday that SpaceX will be one of the best stocks to hold for years. Hours earlier, the shares closed at $134.72, just under their $135 June listing price.

That leaves anyone who bought at the listing slightly underwater. Wall Street analysts still see 86% upside. Options traders, however, are paying for a 14% swing in either direction by mid-December.

SpaceX Stock (SPCX) Performance Since IPO. Source: Yahoo Finance

Is Binance Selling Its SpaceX Shares?

Binance holds more than $1 billion in SpaceX stock. The stake began as a $500 million bet on Elon Musk’s 2022 Twitter takeover.

On Friday, CZ cited those shares while tallying the hack shortfall, as BeInCrypto reported. Some users read it as a threat to sell. CZ rejected that.

“I never said “selling SPCX shares”… I don’t make threats… And I think it will be one of the best stocks to hold for a long time to come,” CZ articulated.

Binance co-CEO Yi He has said this year’s revenue covers the losses from the $6 billion heist.

Why Are Options Traders Bracing for December?

Lockups bar early investors from selling for a set period after a listing. SpaceX’s final batch of locked-up shares becomes sellable on December 8, according to the schedule published on Nasdaq.

Options contracts expiring December 18 price a move of about $19, or 14%, according to OptionCharts. That implies a range of $117 to $155.

SpaceX stock expected move by options expiry, Source: OptionCharts

The last major unlock went the other way. When over 911 million insider shares unlocked on August 6, SPCX rose more than 6% toward $115.

How Much Upside Do Analysts See?

Of 35 analysts tracked by TipRanks, 29 rate SpaceX stock a Buy. Their average target of $250.34 sits about 86% above Friday’s close.

Even the lowest target, Piper Sandler’s $140, is above the current price.

SpaceX stock analyst price targets, Source: TipRanks

Valuation is the bear case. SpaceX trades at about 518 times its annual profit, per MarketBeat, even after third-quarter revenue jumped 161% to $14.57 billion.

The December 8 unlock lands 10 days before those options expire.

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